Labours Poll Drop as Support Plunges
A year after Labour’s landslide victory in the July 2024 general election, the party is facing a dramatic slide in public support, sparking concerns within its ranks and raising questions about voter confidence in the new government.
According to a comprehensive analysis of recent opinion polls, Labour’s average support over the past month has plummeted to 24% — a sharp 10-point decline from the 34% recorded immediately after the party took power. This marks the largest first-year polling drop for a governing party since John Major’s Conservative government in the early 1990s.
A Historic Decline in Support
Data compiled by the PA news agency, using a blend of national polling archives and figures from the British General Election studies, indicates that while it’s not uncommon for governments to see a dip in popularity during their first year, the scale of Labour’s fall is highly unusual.
The last comparable drop occurred between 1992 and 1993, when the Conservatives under John Major saw their poll numbers fall by 12 percentage points — from an average of 43% after the April 1992 election to 31% a year later. Labour’s current trajectory now echoes that rare and politically damaging trend.
The analysis took into account the average polling figures in the month following the election and compared them with the latest averages in the lead-up to the first anniversary of Labour’s time in office. For the current government, that means comparing figures from August 2024 — when the first post-election polls were conducted — to June 2025.
Not Just a Normal First-Year Dip
In the past four decades, nearly every UK government has experienced a post-election dip in the polls. However, these drops have typically been in the range of 3 to 7 percentage points — and from much higher starting positions than Labour’s modest 34% baseline.
For instance:
>>> Tony Blair’s Labour government dropped six points in 1997–98 (from 59% to 53%)
>>> Blair’s second term saw a seven-point fall (from 49% to 42%)
>>> Boris Johnson’s Conservative government in 2019 declined by seven points (from 46% to 39%)
>>> David Cameron’s first term (2010) dropped just three points, and his second term (2015) by six
Only one recent administration managed to improve its standing: Theresa May’s minority Conservative government, elected in 2017, saw a two-point rise from 40% to 42% during its first year.
In contrast, Labour’s double-digit decline is now the steepest fall since the 1990s and stands out even more because it began from a relatively low point of support.
A Crisis for the Two Major Parties
What makes this year particularly striking in UK political history is the parallel fall of both major parties. The Conservatives, now in opposition, have also seen their support nosedive — from an already-low 25% in the weeks after the 2024 election to just 18% in recent polling.
That simultaneous collapse in public trust for both Labour and the Tories is unprecedented in modern polling history. Instead of flocking to the opposition, disillusioned voters appear to be turning elsewhere.
Rise of the Smaller Parties
The political vacuum left by declining support for the two traditional powerhouses is being filled by smaller parties, most notably Reform UK. The right-wing populist party has surged in recent months, rising from 17% after the election to a commanding 29%, making it the current frontrunner in national polls.
The Liberal Democrats have also seen modest gains, moving from 12% to 14%, while the Green Party has increased its share from 6% to 9%. These shifts reflect a broader trend of voter discontent with the status quo and a willingness to explore alternatives across the political spectrum.
While opinion polls are not predictors of election outcomes, they are useful barometers of public sentiment. And right now, that sentiment appears to be highly volatile, with many voters feeling increasingly disconnected from both the government and the opposition.
A Grim Outlook for Starmer’s Leadership
The polling figures aren’t just bad for the Labour Party — they’re also deeply personal for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. New approval ratings released by Ipsos paint a stark picture of public dissatisfaction with his leadership.
Only 19% of adults surveyed in early June said they were satisfied with Starmer’s performance, while a staggering 73% expressed dissatisfaction. That results in a net approval rating of -54 — the lowest recorded by Ipsos for any UK prime minister roughly 12 months into their term.
To put that in perspective, the next lowest one-year rating was Gordon Brown’s -48 in 2008, followed by Rishi Sunak’s -37 in October 2023. By comparison, Tony Blair enjoyed a net approval rating of +44 at the same point in his first term, and even John Major had a positive score of +15 in 1991.
David Cameron managed a relatively neutral -3 in May 2011, while Margaret Thatcher had a -7 score in June 1980. Theresa May posted -25 in July 2017, and Boris Johnson broke even in July 2020, with equal numbers of people satisfied and dissatisfied.
Although Starmer’s current rating is not the worst Ipsos has ever recorded — that dubious honour belongs to John Major and Rishi Sunak, both of whom hit -59 — it does signal a deepening crisis of public confidence in the Labour leader’s ability to govern.
Voter Volatility and Political Uncertainty
The simultaneous collapse in support for both Labour and the Conservatives, paired with a historic low in approval ratings for the Prime Minister, highlights a uniquely unsettled political moment for the UK.
Where voters go from here remains unclear. Reform UK’s rise may reflect protest more than permanent loyalty, while the modest growth of the Liberal Democrats and Greens suggests appetite for alternatives but not yet a major realignment.
One year on from Labour’s historic win, the party finds itself in a precarious position. The public mood has soured rapidly, and unless Starmer and his government can reverse the trend, they risk becoming one of the fastest-fading ruling parties in modern British history.
The challenge now is not just to regain lost ground but to convince a disillusioned electorate that Labour can deliver on the promises that won it power just 12 months ago. Whether they can do so in time for the next general election remains to be seen.